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4.1 midterm predictions

1. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner1 in a district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points — is because it came on reasonably high turnout, the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.
2. Democratic swing is the difference between the special election result and the district’s partisan lean.
3.By contrast, the 16- or 17-point5 average Democratic overperformance in special elections so far suggests a Democratic mega-tsunami.
4.they trail Democrats by “only” 8 or 9 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, which suggests a close race for control of the House this year that only narrowly favors Democrats.
5.Democrats also appear to have an enthusiasm advantage — 60 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Clinton voters say they have a high degree of interest in the 2018 midterms. Fifty-four percent of Republicans and 37 percent of independents say the same. Young people, however, lag: Only 37 percent of registered voters ages 18-34 say they’re excited about the 2018 vote.
6.Republicans dumped millions of dollars to hold Pennsylvania’s 18th District in a special election on Tuesday between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone. Trump carried the district, which won’t exist in November because the state’s Supreme Court redrew the map to tamp down partisan gerrymandering, by about 20 points in 2016. Lamb still eked out a victory over Saccone
7.President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 43 percent among all Americans, four points higher than where it was in January. FiveThirtyEight’s average of presidential approval polls finds that 40.2 percent of Americans think Trump is doing a good job as president. On January 1, he was at 37.9 percent on average.
8.If voters are warming up to Trump slightly (and he still remains historically unpopular compared to his predecessors), that’s not translating to how they feel about Congress. “Trumpism may well help Donald Trump in his 2020 election, but the buck stops there — which is a flashing red light for Republicans in 2017 or 2018,” Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the NBC/WSJ poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff, said in a statement accompanying the results.

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