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blog 2.4 looking ahead to 2018

1. 14
2. 3
3. It is historically normal, but not this early in the race.
4. The discrepancy in retirements between the two parties suggests that many Republicans fear a backlash against their party due to President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating. And that fear will only be exacerbated by sweeping Democratic victories in Virginia’s recent elections.
5. They're facing danger because of the negative outlook on Trump's presidency, and all sins point to democratic wave.
6.“incumbency advantage" They’re more likely to win, and open seats are more likely to flip to the other party than are seats where an incumbent is running again are.
7.It’s likely to help Democratic recruiting too, as potentially strong candidates are often more willing to run in an open-seat contest than to take on an incumbent.
8.In more-or-less neutral congressional years without a big wave for one party or the other, FairVote finds the incumbency advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent.

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